CBA-or "The war to end all wars (and NHL too)"

Mario Roy þ@mariowroy
RT @walsha: The average NHL ticket price has increased 39% since 2004 when G. Bettman promised fans a salary cap would lower ticket prices.

www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/story/2012/08/21/sp-nhl-labour-talks-fehr-bettman.html

NHL, NHLPA set to head back to the negotiating table

Where do we go from here?

As the NHL and NHL Players' Association resume collective bargaining talks, that is the question they're both seeking to answer.

The sides stepped away from negotiations last week with competing bids on the table and no clear road ahead. They spoke again over the weekend and agreed to devote sessions Wednesday and Thursday entirely to core economic issues — the area where the parties seem to have the most ground to make up.

"We are hoping that our meetings this week can serve as a jumping off point for further discussion and negotiation over the critical economic and system issues that we need to resolve in order to reach an agreement," deputy commissioner Bill Daly said Tuesday in an email.

Essentially, it's time to see how much each side is willing to move off its current position, if at all.

While a significant gap exists between the two proposals when it comes to the amount of money available to players, there is some common ground. The union's decision to keep a hard salary cap in place was an important step in the process and its willingness to accept less than 57 per cent of revenues — for three years, anyway — seemed to indicate it was trying to work with the NHL.

"We thought it was a compromise," Donald Fehr, the NHLPA's executive director, told reporters last week.

Even though commissioner Gary Bettman offered a cold public response to the union's "alternate view" — as Fehr termed the proposal — it was clearly a step in the right direction. Are the players willing to go even further? How far will the league move off its proposal, which called for new contract restrictions and player salaries based on 43 per cent of revenue?

The sides are operating in the shadow of a Sept. 15 deadline, when the current CBA is set to expire and the NHL has said players will be locked out.

Talks are tentatively scheduled for the next two weeks in New York so there is plenty of room for continued dialogue if the parties can start getting on the same page in the coming days.

Beyond the monetary issue at the heart of talks, each side has prioritized a secondary cause.

The NHLPA has made it clear that it would like to see an increase in revenue sharing and proposed the creation of an industry growth fund that would see $100 million US contributed each year for struggling teams. It would be part of a wider plan totalling $250 million in annual redistributed funds and Bettman would be given the chance to decide how the money from the industry growth fund is spread around.

"The idea was to come up with specific team-by-team plans to stabilize this industry and put the difficulties behind us," said Fehr.

The NHL is largely happy with the current economic system, but has made no secret of the fact it would like to see the end to heavily front-loaded, long-term contacts. As part of its proposal, deals would be capped at five years and would be required to pay the same amount each season.

So far, the NHLPA has said players would like rules governing contracts to remain the same.

However, it's reasonable to assume that the secondary issues could be taken care of once there's some movement on the primary one. The tone of this week's talks should offer a good indication of whether that will happen in time for a deal to be completed before Sept. 15.

"Hopefully we'll find a way during that process to achieve more common ground than we have so far," said Fehr.

NHL-NHLPA reach important stage of talks on CBA Add to ...
Chris Johnston

TORONTO — The Canadian Press

Published Tuesday, Aug. 21 2012, 6:52 PM EDT

Last updated Tuesday, Aug. 21 2012, 8:17 PM EDT

Where do we go from here?

As the NHL and NHL Players’ Association resume collective bargaining talks, that is the question they’re both seeking to answer.

The sides stepped away from negotiations last week with competing bids on the table and no clear road ahead. They spoke again over the weekend and agreed to devote sessions Wednesday and Thursday entirely to core economic issues — the area where the parties seem to have the most ground to make up.

“We are hoping that our meetings this week can serve as a jumping off point for further discussion and negotiation over the critical economic and system issues that we need to resolve in order to reach an agreement,” deputy commissioner Bill Daly said Tuesday in an email.

Essentially, it’s time to see how much each side is willing to move off its current position, if at all.

Donald Fehr spent the time between negotiating sessions holding regional player meetings — first in Chicago and then in Kelowna, B.C. After wrapping up his session there Tuesday, the NHLPA’s executive director was measured in his assessment of the talks to come.

“The task is to try and find a way to make an agreement if that’s something that the owners are inclined to do,” Fehr told reporters. “I hope that they are and we’ll see how it goes.”

While a significant gap exists between the two proposals when it comes to the amount of money available to players, there is some common ground. The union’s decision to keep a hard salary cap in place was an important step in the process and its willingness to accept less than 57 per cent of revenues — for three years, anyway — seemed to indicate it was trying to work with the NHL.

Even though commissioner Gary Bettman offered a cold public response to the union’s “alternate view,” some close to the talks believe it was a step in the right direction. Now who takes the next step (or two)?

The owners will almost certainly seek to get more money back than the players initially offered and they are said to have no interest in the fourth year of that proposal, which called for the system to snap back to its current position.

From the NHLPA’s point of view, it has yet to even receive an offer worth considering. It has no interest in seeing revenues decreased anywhere near the 43 per cent range the NHL tabled last month and it also isn’t enamoured with the new contract restrictions that were proposed either.

“The gulf that separates us is triggered essentially by the owners position that the players have to make enormous concessions — far more than they did the last time (in 2004-05),” said Fehr. “And what they did the last time was stunningly large.”

The sides are operating in the shadow of a Sept. 15 deadline, when the current CBA is set to expire and the NHL has said players will be locked out. Talks are tentatively scheduled for the next two weeks in New York so there is plenty of room for continued dialogue if the parties can start getting on the same page in the coming days.

Beyond the monetary issue at the heart of talks, each side has prioritized a secondary cause.

The NHLPA has made it clear that it would like to see an increase in revenue sharing and proposed the creation of an industry growth fund that would see $100 million contributed each year for struggling teams. It would be part of a wider plan totalling $250 million in annual redistributed funds and Bettman would be given the power to determine how the money from the industry growth fund is spread around.

The NHL, meanwhile, is largely happy with the current economic system, but has made no secret of the fact it would like to see the end to heavily front-loaded, long-term contacts. As part of its proposal, deals would be capped at five years and would be required to pay the same amount each season.

However, it’s reasonable to assume that the secondary issues could be taken care of once there’s some movement on the main one — and that’s the topic up for discussion this week.

As a result, the tone of talks in the coming days should offer a good indication of whether there’s still a chance a new deal can be completed before Sept. 15.

^^^ Gary and Bill were playing "bridge" with Don Fehr and Steve Fehr. Gary needed more time to think about his bridge bid. He didn't like the look of his cards.

Gary - "MISDEAL! GET A NEW DECK PLEASE". Gary and Bill reboot their plans for their postponed CBA meeting on Thursday morning!

See the Brookes Boys Blog on the CBA, here:

gojetsgo.freeforums.net/index.cgi?board=blogs&action=display&thread=86

I see the looming lockout in a whole new light after reading this. It's not like I didnt already think that the NHL was planning to roll the players over hard, but this convinced me that there is ZERO fear on the owners side.
Until now I hadn't thought there was much chance of losing the whole season but now it looks distinctly possible.
Being a Jet fan I don't plan to change my spending habits to boycott hockey but I wish all the other cities would.

Yeah. I am afraid of losing most of the season - maybe all of it.

The probem with Bettman and Daly is that they are super-tough negotiators, and they don't like to lose. They will push hard for a long, long time. Bettman has painted himself into a corner by staking out a hard position and comparing the NHL to the NBA and NFL agreements. Now, if he accepts less than 50/50, he can't save face. He has no wiggle room based on what he has said.

Fehr isn't helping by asking for huge revenue sharing. The revenue sharing is not going to change meaningfully because the Leafs were just bought by public media companies for 10 figures, based on earnings and revenues. Putting players salaries into the revenue sharing pot is just a clever way of offering a pay cut without it looking like a pay cut, but the Leafs and Rangers won't let $250 million out of their grasp that easily - or at all.

Yep. What we got here is yer classic stalemate. Both sides have painted themselves into corners on the opposite sides of the room.

blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/09/05/recess-is-over-nhl-and-nhlpa-talks-resume-behind-the-scenes-reports-peter-adler/

Recess is over. NHL and NHLPA talks resume behind the scenes, reports Peter Adler

September 5, 2012. 6:23 am • Section: Cult of Hockey, Oilers
0 65 0


Posted by:
David Staples

By PETER ADLER

The Cult of Hockey @ The Edmonton Journal

Now that NHLPA executive director Don Fehr announced to all and sundry last Friday that talks with the NHL regarding a new collective bargaining agreement have been recessed, what do you think is going to happen?

How long the recess?

Here’s the answer: it’s over. Has been since Tuesday first thing in the morning, at least.

You didn’t believe for a moment that as soon as Labour Day is over, someone from either side would pick up the phone, call somebody from the other side and utter words to this effect: “Hey, let’s compare notes and see if we can get ourselves out from the mess we’re in?”

Who made the call? Nobody’s saying, but wise betting money would be on the NHL. Not because they’re panicking more than the union. They haven’t got that much reason to panic as the NHLPA does, after all. No, this would happen this way because that’s how the current NHL leadership operates. After all, who was it, issuing siren calls to the PA last fall, asking them to come to the table?

Any betting man (or woman) would be hard-pressed to assume the league would call the union just so it can negotiate against itself. No. The idea here is to be consistent so, eventually, the paying public is aware of who’s been stalling and who’s been pro-active.

If that’s what’s happened, score one against the union right here.

Did the NHLPA have any valid reason to decline repeated invitations to dance, other than that league commissioner Gary Bettman is bad at polka and his deputy Bill Daly knows not a step of tango?

Don Fehr thought it had. The reason is contained in the theory of negotiations 101 textbooks. If you think, rightly or not, that the other side depends on a deadline for its life, try to delay and stall as much as you can. The other side might give up a thing or two that it would later regret. It would do so just because of the duress.

Except Gary Bettman must have read the same textbook. The league won’t cry if the deadline’s not met, he told the union. It would just close the store and wait the storm out. If anyone’s going to lose anything, it’s going to be the players: they won’t be getting any salaries, and they won’t be able to recover them, either.
Fehr tried to put a great face on a very bad move by saying the Sept. 15 deadline is an artificial construct, anyhow, and there’s no law forbidding anybody to continue operating under the old CBA until the new one is hammered out. You might have noticed the league didn’t even bother to smile, never mind laugh outright. And when some player agents began hinting Oct. 11, the beginning of the regular season schedule, is the real deadline, Bettman dismissed them. He didn’t even care to add that it’s the NHLPA that licences player agents, so, talk about conflict of interest.

Another trick: let’s talk about minor stuff, agree upon that, and only then move to the basics. This is a pretty useful negotiating tactic: once the sides have invested so much time and energy into the side issues, and are close to agreement on them (pending only the agreement on the major stuff), would it not be a pity to waste so much time and energy by ditching it all?

Well, the two sides DID try it, but as it had been getting them nowhere so far as the “core economic issues” are concerned, there had to be a stalemate here, too.

And this is one of the main challenges. For both sides. The NHL comes with an operating proposal that deals with those so-called “core economic issues.”

The NHLPA ignores it and comes up with something completely different. Not only that, it takes a full month to provide its proposal. The NHL dismisses it almost out of hand and comes up with a modified proposal on those same “core economic issues.” While at it, it gives up the previously suggested rollbacks. In return, it delinks salary caps from its hockey-related revenues. What this does, by the way, is that it takes away the players’ right to nose around the league’s and the teams’ books because – under this proposal – league revenue become none of their business.

What do the players do? Ignore it and come back with a proposal based on a revenue sharing modification. That right after the league told them they’re out of the revenue game.

The league can also point out that the longer the stalemate, the worse the situation in Phoenix. The new would-be owners are not signing on the dotted line with the NHL until and unless they know there’s a season. The city of Glendale is not signing the arena management deal with the would-be new owners until and unless they become owners in reality, not just in their dreams.

Greg Jamison says he’s got all the money needed for the purchase lined up. Yes. But how long are the financiers going to watch heaps of dough sitting idly in bank vaults, waiting to be spent on the purchase? Money that sits idly, to them, is a crime against humanity. Whether they are right or not is beside the point. On pure economics, yes, they are perfectly correct. But that’s not the issue. The issue is that sooner rather than later that money would be gone. The Coyotes would be where they’ve been the last few seasons. Sell and move them? Where? Quebec City? After a nationalist party had just won the provincial election? The province seems to have made a solemn commitment to pump substantial amounts of money into building a new arena. Will the new government honour this commitment? The federal government is (and has been) on record as saying it’s not in the business of professional sports. Whence else is the money coming? The province of Quebec is so much in debt, it would be in a worst state than Greece without transfers from other provinces. Are you sure other provinces would be overjoyed to hear they are sending money to Quebec so it can build a spanking new arena to accommodate the luckless Phoenix Coyotes?

And just as an observation: the economic situation in and around Quebec City hasn’t changed that much since the time Marcel Aubut realized he couldn’t afford his Nordiques any longer. Remember, professional hockey revenues are no longer based on gate receipts.

Let’s look at the Oilers. Let’s assume Rexall Place accomodates 17,000 paying fans. It doesn’t, but let’s be generous. Let’s say a ticket costs $100 on average. Got it? Fine: it’s $1,700,000 in ticket income every night. The club plays 41 home games. Using all of your fingers and toes, here’s the sum: $69,700,000 in gate receipts. That basically covers player salaries for the season. Where’s the operation of the team? The front office? The travel to 41 away games? Hotels?
That money is coming from a number of sources in and around town. Why do you think there are timeouts after almost every second faceoff? To accommodate commercials, that’s why.

Does Quebec City have any of this infrastructure? Come to think of it, even Winnipeg is going to be in jam, trying to meet its commitments, in the long run.
To sum up: have the players given a damn about the Coyotes?

Speaking of which: how many more times is Shane Doan going to have to extend his contract deadline with Phoenix? The guy’s loyal to the club, and to the community, but there are limits, aren’t there?

Oh, absolutely, something will have to give, and it’s perfectly difficult, bordering on the impossible, to predict who will blink first, over what, and how often.
But rest assured, there are phones ringing in the background, it’s just we haven’t heard them yet.

Eric Macramalla ‏@ericonsportslaw
I'm still not convinced as of yet there will be a #NHL lockout; obvious areas of compromise - will know more early next week

www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-nhl-deputy-commissioner-daly-questions-players-urgency-20120905,0,3951635.story

Sports Now
SPORTS NEWS FROM LOS ANGELES AND BEYOND
NHL's Bill Daly questions players' urgency in labor talks


NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman, left, and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly leave the NHL Players Assn. offices in Toronto following collective bargaining negotiations on Aug. 22. (Chris Young / Associated Press / August 22, 2012)
By Helene Elliott
September 5, 2012, 6:24 p.m.
NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly said Wednesday he's not sure the players’ union has been treating the Sept. 15 expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement as an urgent deadline for reaching accord on a new deal and suggested the idea of losing part or all of training camp hasn't given the union a sense of urgency.

The league and the NHL Players Assn. haven’t had formal talks since last Friday and no additional negotiations are scheduled. Training camps are scheduled to open on Sept. 21.

“Maybe we’re at a point where we need to find a way to move the ball forward. We’re very close to Sept. 15, which we consider a very meaningful day. We hope it’s as meaningful to the players’ association. I don’t know that it is,” Daly told The Times.

“Our regular season doesn’t open until Oct. 11. Maybe a shortened training camp or the elimination of training camp is not as big a deal to them. A lockout of any length or cancellation of preseason games would have an impact on the business. Hopefully, they recognize that.”

Donald Fehr, the NHLPA's executive director, disputed the perception that the union is not taking the Sept. 15 deadline seriously.

"The notion that players would not take Sept. 15 as a credible date upon which owners might choose to institute a lockout is just not credible," he said by phone late Wednesday.

Daly and Fehr's brother Steve, the NHLPA’s counsel and second-in-command during labor talks, were scheduled to have dinner together on Wednesday. The NHL has called a meeting of its Board of Governors for next Thursday in New York, where Commissioner Gary Bettman is expected to outline the status of the labor talks. Players are also scheduled to meet in New York next week.

Daly said dialogue has continued since last week. “There has certainly been no breakdown in communications,” he said. But he also said the league had made “the last real proposal,” and that the last negotiating session was “disappointing.”

The NHLPA has posted on its website a list of talking points about the negotiations. USA Today reported on Wednesday that the union had also sent a memo to players outlining various scenarios regarding what might happen during a lockout, including the right of injured players to receive paychecks and the ramifications of agreeing to play in other leagues during an league-imposed lockout.

www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/06/nbc-hockey-lockout-idUSL2E8K5L7520120906

RPT-Hockey lockout could freeze NBC's sports momentum


By Liana B. Baker

Sept 5, (Reuters) - NBC executives are hoping that the National Hockey League and its players union reach a new labor agreement and avoid a lockout that could leave the network scrambling to find a replacement for one of its sports programming mainstays.

Hockey is a linchpin of NBC Sports programming - the network signed a new $2 billion, 10-year contract with the league last year. A strike or delay in the upcoming NHL season would throw cold water on the momentum it built up from the London Olympics, which nightly averaged 31.3 million viewers for the network.

Labor talks between the NHL and the union representing its players broke down last week over economic issues such as revenue sharing. The league's owners have said they would lock out players if a deal is not reached by a Sept. 15 deadline. As of Wednesday afternoon, talks between the two sides had not yet resumed.

The worst case scenario for Comcast-owned NBC, which holds the exclusive national broadcast rights to NHL games, is for the entire upcoming season to be canceled. That's not without precedent. The NHL and its players union scrapped the entire 2004-05 season after failing to achieve a labor deal.

A better, but not ideal, scenario for NBC would be a delay to the NHL season, similar to what happened to the National Basketball Association last year. The first regular season NHL game is scheduled for Oct. 11, but exhibition games start about two weeks earlier.

The timing could not be worse for Comcast, which is relying on hockey to build up the NBC Sports Network, its fledgling cable sports channel. A lockout would leave the network, previously known as Versus and the Outdoor Life Network, with major holes to fill in its prime-time lineup.

"The NBC Sports Network got some great lift and visibility and awareness with the Olympics and they'd like to keep that momentum by having the NHL," said Jason Maltby, director of national broadcast TV at media buying firm MindShare.

Comcast's plan was to couple the momentum generated by the London Olympics with hockey, whose television ratings have increased in recent years, as a way to brand the NBC Sports Network as a rival destination to Disney's ESPN and the regional sports networks operated by News Corp's Fox unit.

More viewers than ever before sampled the NBC Sports network during the Olympics, which aired live team sports during the games. The women's U.S. soccer final, for instance, garnered more than 4.3 million total viewers, a higher total than last year's highest-rated Stanley Cup playoff game.

NBC Sports spokesman Chris McCloskey said in a statement that NBC is hopeful the labor situation will be resolved without disrupting the cable network's lineup. But if a lockout does occur, he said, the network can offer alternatives.

"In the event of a labor stoppage, we are preparing a selection of replacement programming that includes soccer, boxing, original programming, and college football, basketball and hockey," McCloskey said.

In addition, NBC itself could be without the NHL's signature Winter Classic game. The outdoor game, played on New Year's Day, has turned into a marquee event that generates solid ratings and ad revenue for NBC.

The next match-up, between the Detroit Red Wings and the Toronto Maple Leafs, is set to be played in Ann Arbor, Michigan, in front of 100,000 attendees.

Andre Mika, a TBA Global marketing executive and former producer of three Winter Classic broadcasts for NBC, said that the game is a big piece of NBC's sponsorship pie and other than the Stanley Cup final, it is the highest-profile hockey event of the year.

"They need to make a plan. I am sure it's a concern for NBC because right now they are already preparing for the game," Mika said.

LOW RATINGS, FAST GROWTH

Out of the four major U.S. sports, hockey attracts the smallest number of viewers, according to Nielsen. An average of 3.8 million viewers tuned into NHL games last year, compared with 23.1 million who watched the NFL, 7.5 million who watched the NBA and 6.3 million who watched Major League Baseball.

But hockey viewership increased 52 percent last year from the 2010-11 season, according to Nielsen, which is a much faster growth rate than that of any of the other major sports leagues.

NBC and the NBC Sports Network collected $150 million in advertising from NHL games last year, according Kantar Media. The league's increasing popularity, combined with the network's need to lock up marquee sports programming rights not owned by its rivals, led NBC to sign the new 10-year contract with the NHL last year.

If the season is lost to a strike, NBC will still pay the league $200 million this year, but at the end of its contract it will receive an extra year of broadcast rights, according to a source familiar with the deal.

A representative for the NHL declined to comment on its contract with NBC.

ADVERTISING

Media buyers are anxious to find out if the season will be delayed or canceled because they may need to redirect advertising money intended for hockey.

Advertising buys are made on behalf of clients based on reaching a minimum number of viewers within a certain demographic, in this case males. If a strike occurs, media buyers would need to move their ads into other programming that reaches a male demographic similar to that of the NHL. Depending on the ad agreement, NBC could re-allocate the money to advertising on its other networks or pay the advertiser back a certain amount, which is known in industry parlance as a "make good."

"We should begin to start worrying now. The sooner we know, the better, because everyone will be chasing the other (ad) inventory," said one media buyer for an official NHL sponsor who was not authorized to speak to the media about the league.

Michael Neuman, managing partner of Scout Sports and Entertainment, said that advertising prices could rise for other sports or male-oriented programming if an NHL lockout occurs. Scout Sports, owned by Horizon Media, negotiated Geico's sponsorship renewal and advertising deal with the NHL last year.

But Neuman said a hockey lockout will not have nearly the same effect on the advertising market as the NFL lockout last summer, for example. Last year, when a lockout threatened the cancellation of the NFL season, advertisers scrambled to line up alternative programming that could deliver comparable ratings, a near-impossible task given the NFL's massive viewership. The full NFL season ended up being played after a new agreement was struck.

"The stress on media buyers right now is far less than what the industry experienced last year with the NFL," Neuman said.

espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/8340904/talking-collective-bargaining-strategies-former-nhlpa-exec-paul-kelly

Kelly: Players more unified than ever
Updated: September 5, 2012, 10:32 PM ET
By John Buccigross | ESPN.com

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images
Former NHLPA executive director Paul Kelly says the lockout could last for several weeks.

I got this text from a very well-connected hockey source Tuesday night:

"In spending time around the players the last month, I think they are very unified and more misinformed than ever. They don't get it. I know for a fact there are teams that would lose much less money by not playing than if they played. If you are an owner, why would you agree to lose more money when this is your one chance to reset the equation? The players are being walked right down the gangplank and don't see it coming."

Well, here we go again.

The CBA expires at midnight on Sept. 15. The lockout will begin on that day. Training camps will be suspended. Some players and coaches will return home to their summer dwellings, others will probably get some ice time on their own and continue the process of team building.

If the lockout then bleeds into early October, then games will begin to get cancelled. Team employees will probably be OK at the start but lots of local broadcasters will not get paid, as they are paid on a per-game basis. Some veteran broadcasters will get a reduced salary. NHL referees, if the same holds true as last lockout, will also get a percentage of their pay. Players don't get paid and could certainly afford to miss a paycheck or two or three. That doesn't sound like a big deal, but psychologically it will chip away as time goes by. Remember, a guy making a "measly" $1.8 million a year, has a gross paycheck every two weeks of $300,000, money he will never see again. He didn't get most of his salary in a July bonus like Brad Richards did ($8 million signing bonus, $4 million salary for this season). A player making $6 million this season (Zdeno Chara) makes $1 million a month, $500,000 a paycheck.

Gary Bettman will still collect his pay but he probably should. He never works harder for his owners than he does right now. The NHLPA likes to mention Donald Fehr will not be getting paid during the lockout. Big deal. He's a millionaire.

People have said the NHL doesn't want to cancel the Winter Classic (of course they don't) and so it is a sort of lockout inhibitor, but I imagine they could figure something out with the schedule and play the game at a later date through February, if they had to. Backyard rink owners know that.

The fact is, it is too early for "save hockey" videos and impassioned "save hockey" columns. This thing will not get serious until later this month or early October. If nothing is done then, the owners will chill for a month while the NFL and college football is revving up.

My "Bucci All You Can Eat Prime Rib Spin Doctors Are Next" over/under on a lockout length is six weeks. The above source says it will go until December. Others have told me November.

With this mind, I thought it might be a good time to get the perspective of someone who has dealt with Gary Bettman and the owners before. Paul Kelly was introduced as executive director of the National Hockey League Players' Association on Oct. 24, 2007. On Aug. 31, 2009, Kelly was fired. Another bizarre chapter in the history of the NHLPA. He will be our professor for today's class. I've provided the questions, which he sent answers to in email.

John Buccigross: What is the crux of the negotiations between the players and owners?

Paul Kelly: At the heart of the negotiations are the basic economics of the sport and how the revenues generated are to be shared by owners and players. Under the expiring collective bargaining agreement (CBA), the players received 57 percent of a defined pool known as "hockey-related revenue" (HRR) and the owners received 43 percent. The players' share goes to pay salaries of all players under contract to the 30 NHL teams. The NHL believes that it needs to reduce its overall labor costs and that these percentages have to be changed for all of its franchises to remain financially stable. The league is roughly proposing to move to a 50-50 split of revenue. The players believe that the way to achieve financial stability within the sport is to increase revenue sharing between and among the teams, and not to ask for more give-backs from them. They feel that they agreed to a salary-cap system (as opposed to a free-market system) and a 24 percent roll-back in salaries under the existing CBA, only 6 years ago, and they should not be asked to make such significant concessions again this time, especially given expanding league revenues over the life of the current deal.

JB: How much authority do the owners give Gary Bettman in these matters?

PK: Commissioner Bettman has a tremendous degree of authority from the owners when it comes to CBA negotiations. The ownership group, also referred to as the board of governors, has an appointed executive committee consisting of seven owners who represent the larger group and work closely with the commissioner in making decisions during the course of labor discussions. However, it is very clear that the commissioner has the full trust and confidence of his ownership group.

JB: How much influence does the Winter Classic have on the negotiations?

PK: The Winter Classic is certainly a significant event on the NHL calendar, and even more so this season with the venue (the "Big House" at the University of Michigan) and two of the Original Six teams (Toronto and Detroit). This is an event that the league does not wish to lose, and which NBC certainly hopes to be able to broadcast on New Year's Day. That said, the NHL has protected itself legally and financially in the event of a cancellation, and I would not expect either side to materially alter its stance in negotiations based solely on the risk of losing the Winter Classic.

JB: How would you characterize the players' solidarity based on what you are observing from the outside? And what do you think Donald Fehr is telling them?

PK: The players appear far more unified than they did in 2005, and Don Fehr and his staff deserve credit for that. Obviously, solidarity and consensus is important to any labor union involved in contract negotiations. Keeping that solidarity will become more difficult as members begin losing paychecks and sitting idle over an extended period of time. Mr. Fehr is undoubtedly telling them to be patient and allow the process to evolve, and assuring them that what has transpired to date is not unusual or unexpected. He will provide them with first-hand experiences from his time in baseball to remind them that sticking together as a group is the only way that they will achieve a successful result, and that division and dissent will make achieving their objectives far more difficult.

JB: What is your opinion of markets Phoenix, Florida, Tampa Bay, Columbus, etc.? Are these long-term, viable hockey markets in your estimation?

PK: It is undisputed that selling NHL hockey is more difficult in non-traditional winter sport markets where the fan base did not grow up skating and playing hockey as youngsters. Teams in these markets are under greater pressure to win in order to be financially successful. Recent history has shown, however, that when these franchises are successful on the ice, and provide an entertaining product to watch, they will receive strong fan support. This has occurred in recent years in Tampa, Raleigh, Nashville, Dallas and most recently in Phoenix. On the flip side, we have seen that a team that struggles to win and lacks strong and innovative ownership, such as Atlanta, will have challenges that can not always be overcome. However, I do not think we should give up on these markets. With strong management, exciting young players (which we seem to have many of in the NHL these days) and creative marketing, I believe that each of the markets mentioned has a chance to be viable and successful.

JB: Fans appear to be on the players' side by a wide margin. Why is that?

PK: The NHLPA has done a good job thus far in presenting itself to the public as eager to reach an agreement, interested in continuing to play, and willing to be creative and flexible in its approach to bargaining over certain key issues -- like enhanced revenue sharing to aid some of the franchises in smaller markets. If the fans begin to see the union as intractable and unwilling to make additional economic concessions in order to attempt to reach an agreement, that public perception and support could change.

JB: Ron MacLean wrote on CBC.ca this week the following: "Fehr has been in precisely this position many times at the MLBPA. Every time the PA stood its ground, there was never a lockout. The wildcard would be player solidarity. Fehr will keep them in check, and Bettman will make a deal." What are your thoughts on that point of view?

PK: While I hope Ron is correct, I tend to disagree with his rosy assessment of the situation. Significant issues still divide the two sides, and millions of dollars are at stake. As things currently stand, and absent a significant move by one side or the other, we will have a lockout as of Sept. 15 and it will last for at least several weeks, if not longer.